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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2022-5-54-77</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-109</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Трансграничное углеродное регулирование и леса России: от ожиданий и мифов к реализации интересов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Cross-Border Carbon Regulation and Forests in Russia: From Expectations and Myth to Realization of Interests</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6828-4367</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шварц</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shvarts</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Евгений Аркадьевич Шварц, доктор географических наук, руководитель Центра ответственного природопользования, профессор факультета географии и геоинформационных технологий</p><p>119017, Москва, Старомонетный пер., 29, стр. 4</p><p>109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeny A. Shvarts, Dr. Sci. (Geogr.), Head of the Center for Responsible Use of Natural Resources, Institute of Geography, Professor at the Faculty of Geography and Geoinformatics</p><p>29, str. 4, Staromonetnуy per., Moscow, 119017</p><p>11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">e.a.shvarts@igras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8426-8770</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кокорин</surname><given-names>А. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kokorin</surname><given-names>A. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Алексей Олегович Кокорин, кандидат физико-математических наук, директор программы «Климат и энергетика»</p><p>109240, Москва, Николоямская ул., 19, стр. 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexey O. Kokorin, Cand. Sci. (Phys. and Math.), Director of the Climate and Energy Program</p><p>19, str. 3, Nikoloyamskaya ul., Moscow, 109240</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">AKokorin@wwf.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4824-6128</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Птичников</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ptichnikov</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андрей Владимирович Птичников, кандидат географических наук, заместитель руководителя Центра ответственного природопользования, доцент факультета географии и геоинформационных технологий</p><p>119017, Москва, Старомонетный пер., 29, стр. 4</p><p>109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Ptichnikov, Cand. Sci. (Geog.), Deputy Head of the Center for Responsible Use of Natural Resources, Institute of Geography, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Geography and Geoinformatics</p><p>29, str. 4, Staromonetnуy per., Moscow, 119017</p><p>11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aptichnikov@igras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-9660</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кренке</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Krenke</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Александр Николаевич Кренке, кандидат географических наук, старший научный сотрудник отдела биогеографии</p><p>119017, Москва, Старомонетный пер., 29, стр. 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexander N. Krenke, Cand. Sci. (Geogr.), Senior Researcher of Laboratory of Biogeography, Institute of Geography</p><p>29, str. 4, Staromonetnуy per., Moscow, 119017</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Krenke-igras@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Academy of Sciences; National Research University Higher School of Economics</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Всемирный фонд дикой природы</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>World Wildlife Fund</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>10</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>17</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>54</fpage><lpage>77</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Шварц Е.А., Кокорин А.О., Птичников А.В., Кренке А.Н., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Шварц Е.А., Кокорин А.О., Птичников А.В., Кренке А.Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Shvarts E.A., Kokorin A.O., Ptichnikov A.V., Krenke A.N.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/109">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/109</self-uri><abstract><p>Введение в действие в 2023–2026 годах трансграничного углеродного регулирования (EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), формирование обязательств компаний по достижению углеродной нейтральности и связанные с этим процессы декарбонизации бизнеса вызвали значительный рост интереса к учету углерододепонирующего потенциала лесов России как ключевому инструменту декарбонизации и поддержки российских экспортеров. В бизнес-кругах возникло мнение, что положительный углеродный баланс лесов России сможет предотвратить необходимость для бизнеса принимать дорогостоящие меры по снижению прямых выбросов СО2. Однако это мнение не находит подтверждения в международных стратегиях и стандартах декарбонизации. Заниматься снижением прямых выбросов придется, а офсетные механизмы, результаты которых рассчитываются как разница между базовым и улучшенным сценариями управления лесами (принцип дополнительности), могут быть использованы для погашения лишь части выбросов. В этом процессе показателен опыт Канады, которая при схожести климатических, лесорастительных условий и плотности населения не нацелена на увеличение оценок нетто-поглощения лесами, а последовательно реализует мероприятия по декарбонизации промышленности вне связи с поглощением СО2 лесами. Приоритеты лесного хозяйства в России, включая восстановление лесов, должны быть постепенно изменены с управления коммерческими лесами для заготовки древесины на снижение горимости всех лесов, включая арендованные и неарендованные, с одновременным пересмотром приоритетов лесовосстановления в направлении большего использования широколиственных и смешанных хвойно-лиственных насаждений. Необходимо убрать барьеры на пути ведения лесного хозяйства на землях сельскохозяйственного назначения, планировать реализацию природно-климатических проектов как на таких землях, так и на землях Гослесфонда.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism over the period from 2023 to 2026 together with corporate commitments to achieve carbon neutrality and carry out commercial decarbonization have markedly increased interest in assessing the potential of carbon sequestration by Russian forests as a possible way to achieve decarbonization and facilitate Russian exports. The prevailing opinion in business circles is that a significant net positive carbon balance from Russia’s forests could circumvent the need for businesses to make costly reductions in their direct CO2 emissions. However, international decarbonization strategies and standards do not concur with that idea. Direct emissions will have to be reduced. Offset mechanisms, whose benefits are calculated as the difference between a baseline and an improved scenario for forest management (the principle of additionality), will compensate for only a part of the emissions. The experience of Canada is indicative, as it consistently implements measures to decarbonize industry without regard to the absorption of CO2 by its forests. Even though Canada has climatic conditions, forest growth, and population density similar to Russia’s, its policy is not dependent upon revising estimates of net CO2 absorption by forests upward. Forestry priorities in Russia, including reforestation, should instead be gradually shifted from managing commercial forests for harvesting timber to reducing all forest fires. Leased and non-leased forests should both be included, and reforestation that favors deciduous species and mixed forests should be given a higher priority. It is also necessary to remove barriers to forestry in agricultural forests and to plan for implementation of projects directed at improving both forestry and climate on the land leased out from the holdings of the State Forest Fund as well as on agricultural tracts, including those now overgrown by forests.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Парижское соглашение</kwd><kwd>роль бореальных лесов в углеродном балансе</kwd><kwd>углеродная нейтральность</kwd><kwd>Канада</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Paris Agreement</kwd><kwd>the role of boreal forests in carbon balance</kwd><kwd>carbon neutrality</kwd><kwd>Canada</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена в рамках государственного задания 0148-2019-0007 (АААА-А19-119021990093-8) «Оценка физико-географических, гидрологических и биотических изменений окружающей среды и их последствий для создания основ устойчивого природопользования».</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">This study was supported by FSR program No. 0148–2019–0007 (AAAA–A19–119021990093–8) “Assessment of Physical, Geographical, Hydrological and Biotic Changes in the Environment and Their Consequences for the Foundation of Sustainable Environmental Management.”</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Нерешенные вопросы статьи 6 Парижского соглашения — возможен ли компромисс в Глазго? // Вестник международных организаций. 2021. 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