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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2024-5-54-83</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-156</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МИКРОЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MICROECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Факторы формирования инфляционных ожиданий населения (по данным обследования финансов домохозяйств)</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Factors in the Formation of Inflation Expectations as Recorded in the Russian National Survey of Consumer Finance</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1901-7086</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Андреев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Andreev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андреев Андрей Валентинович - начальник отдела регионального мониторинга, департамент денежно-кредитной политики, Банк России.</p><p>107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Andreev - Head of the Regional Monitoring Unit, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia.</p><p>12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">andreevav@cbr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0613-6892</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Грищенко</surname><given-names>В. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Grishchenko</surname><given-names>V. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Грищенко Вадим Олегович - начальник отдела макроэкономических и финансовых исследований, департамент исследований и прогнозирования, Банк России.</p><p>107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vadim O. Grishchenko - Head of the Macroeconomic and Financial Unit, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia.</p><p>12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">grishchenkovo@cbr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5769-7713</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лымарь</surname><given-names>М. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lymar</surname><given-names>M. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Лымарь Мария Сергеевна - ведущий экономист отдела макроэкономических и финансовых исследований, департамент исследований и прогнозирования, Банк России.</p><p>107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maria S. Lymar - Lead Economist of the Macroeconomic and Financial Unit, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia.</p><p>12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">lymarms@cbr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3792-9086</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Орлов</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Orlov</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Орлов Дмитрий Александрович - главный экономист отдела регионального мониторинга, департамент денежно-кредитной политики, Банк России.</p><p>107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dmitry A. Orlov - Head Economist of the Regional Monitoring Unit, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia.</p><p>12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">orlovda@cbr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0593-8466</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шубин</surname><given-names>И. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shubin</surname><given-names>I. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Шубин Илья Андреевич - консультант отдела регионального мониторинга, департамент денежно-кредитной политики, Банк России.</p><p>107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ilya A. Shubin - Consultant to the Regional Monitoring Unit, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia.</p><p>12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">shubinia@cbr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Банк России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Bank of Russia</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>11</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>54</fpage><lpage>83</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Андреев А.В., Грищенко В.О., Лымарь М.С., Орлов Д.А., Шубин И.А., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Андреев А.В., Грищенко В.О., Лымарь М.С., Орлов Д.А., Шубин И.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Andreev A.V., Grishchenko V.O., Lymar M.S., Orlov D.A., Shubin I.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/156">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/156</self-uri><abstract><p>Для оперативной оценки инфляционных ожиданий населения Банк России использует результаты опросов, ежемесячно проводимых ООО «инФОМ». Более полную картину взаимосвязей между инфляционными ожиданиями, потребительским и финансовым поведением индивидов способны продемонстрировать данные пятой волны Всероссийского обследования домохозяйств по потребительским финансам (далее — ОФД), в которую впервые были внесены вопросы об инфляционных ожиданиях. В статье сравниваются результаты ОФД и опросов ООО «инФОМ», анализируются причины неоднородности инфляционных ожиданий по данным ОФД и изучаются возможные каналы влияния ожиданий на поведение индивидов. Сравнительный анализ двух опросов показывает, что инфляционные ожидания по различным социально-демографическим подгруппам в ОФД во всех случаях смещены вверх по сравнению с данными опросов ООО «инФОМ». При этом инфляционные ожидания в рассматриваемых опросах неоднородны. Основные причины такой гетерогенности — социально-демографические факторы, материальное положение и ожидания относительно ситуации в экономике, а также уровень финансовой грамотности респондентов. Так, более низкие инфляционные ожидания характерны для молодых людей и людей среднего возраста с более высоким доходом и более высоким уровнем финансовой грамотности. В то же время решения респондентов ОФД относительно потребления и приобретения финансовых активов в зависимости от уровня инфляционных ожиданий вполне рациональны. Те, кто предполагает более высокую инфляцию, склонны больше тратить и меньше сберегать. Полученные результаты служат еще одним аргументом необходимости поддержания ценовой и финансовой стабильности, а также повышения уровня финансовой грамотности населения.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The Bank of Russia uses monthly InFOM survey data to provide a quick estimate of household inflation expectations. A more complete picture of the interrelationships between inflation expectations and the consumer and financial behavior of individuals can be derived from data in the fifth iteration of the Russian National Household Survey of Consumer Finance (Survey of Household Finance — SHF), which for the first time included questions about inflation expectations. This paper compares the results of these surveys, analyzes the reasons for variation of inflation expectations in the SHF, and studies possible ways in which these expectations influence individual behavior. Comparison of the InFOM and SHF data shows that the amount of inflation expected by various socio-demographic groups in the SHF is always higher than in the InFOM survey. However, the inflation expectations in these surveys are not otherwise uniform. Such factors as socio-demographic characteristics, financial situation, perceptions of economic conditions, and the financial literacy of members in a household are the main factors that cause inflation expectations to differ. For example, lower inflation expectations are more typical for young people with higher income and greater financial literacy. The SHF respondents’ decisions about consumption and acquisition of financial assets are nevertheless quite rational. Those who expect higher inflation tend to spend more and at a faster pace while saving less. The results obtained here constitute another argument for maintaining price and financial stability as well as for increasing the financial literacy of the population.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>сберегательное и потребительское поведение индивидов</kwd><kwd>опросы домохозяйств</kwd><kwd>финансовая грамотность</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>consumer and financial behavior of individuals</kwd><kwd>household survey data</kwd><kwd>financial literacy</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Авторы выражают благодарность Т. Шеловановой и В. Зверевой за ценные комментарии.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The authors would like to express their gratitude to T. Shelovanova and V. Zvereva for valuable insights and comments.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Aguiar M. 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