ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2024-6-26-53ecpolicy-197Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYВлияние монетарной политики на ставки по ипотечным кредитам в регионах РоссииImpact of Monetary Policy on Mortgage Rates in Russia’s Regionshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5201-3207ДемидоваО. А.DemidovaO. A.

Ольга Анатольевна Демидова - Доктор экономических наук, кандидат физико-математических наук, профессор, департамент прикладной экономики.

109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11

Olga A. Demidova - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Cand. Sci. (Phys. and Math.), Professor.

11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028

demidova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8513-366XМясниковА. А.MyasnikovA. A.

Александр Алексеевич Мясников - Кандидат экономических наук, доцент, департамент теоретической экономики.

109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11

Alexander A. Myasnikov - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor.

11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028

amyasnikov@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2856-9867СерегинаС. Ф.SereginaS. F.

Светлана Федоровна Серегина - Доктор экономических наук, профессор, департамент теоретической экономики.

109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11

Svetlana F. Seregina - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, National Research.

11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028

sseregina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-7682-1544ЩанкинаА. А.ShchankinaA. A.

Анна Александровна Щанкина - Аспирант, департамент прикладной экономики.

109028, Москва, Покровский бул., 11

Anna A. Shchankina - Postgraduate Student.

11, Pokrovskiy bul., Moscow, 109028

annachankina@yandex.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияUniversity Higher School of EconomicsRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университетРоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation2024271220241962653Copyright © Демидова О.А., Мясников А.А., Серегина С.Ф., Щанкина А.А., 20242024Демидова О.А., Мясников А.А., Серегина С.Ф., Щанкина А.А.Demidova O.A., Myasnikov A.A., Seregina S.F., Shchankina A.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/197

На основе анализа панельных данных по средневзвешенным процентным ставкам в российских регионах в статье показывается неоднородность реакции региональных ипотечных рынков на изменения ставок денежного рынка (в нашем исследовании — MIACR), обусловленной в первую очередь изменениями ключевой ставки Банка России. На эффективность трансмиссии оказывает значимое влияние уровень конкуренции на региональном ипотечном рынке. Мы предполагаем, что это может быть связано с различной ролью инструментов денежного рынка как источников пассивов для различных банков, а значит, и с неодинаковой величиной эффекта переноса изменений ставок рынка межбанковских кредитов на ставки по ипотеке. Кроме того, на значения ипотечных процентных ставок воздействуют уровень конкуренции на региональном ипотечном рынке, а также покупательная способность заемщиков на рынке жилья и качество жизни в российских регионах. Мы объясняем это влияние стандартной микроэкономической логикой рыночных структур, а также значением показателя PTI (отношение месячного платежа по кредиту к ежемесячному доходу заемщика) в определении уровня риска и, соответственно, премии за риск. С уровнями ипотечных процентных ставок также отрицательно связана интенсивность миграционных потоков регионов.

Based on panel data analysis of weighted average interest rates in Russia’s regions, this paper documents differences in the responses of regional mortgage markets to changes in money market rates (in this instance, MIACR), which are influenced primarily by changes in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia. The efficiency of monetary transmission is significantly affected by the degree of competition in regional mortgage markets. The authors propose that this may be explained by the different roles that money market instruments play as a source of liabilities for particular banks and, therefore, by variations in the amplitude of transmission of money market rates into mortgage rates. In addition, mortgage interest rates are influenced by the amount of competition in a regional mortgage market as well as by the purchasing power of borrowers in housing markets and by the quality of life in the Russian regions. This is explained via the standard microeconomic logic of market structures and the role of the PTI (the payment-to-income ratio, which indicates how much of a borrower’s income is spent on loan repayment) in determining degree of risk and ultimately the risk premium. The amount of migration into a region is also negatively correlated with mortgage interest rates.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.