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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-108-137</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-28</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ECONOMIC METHODOLOGY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Памяти Лейфа Йохансена: первая в мире CGE-модель и ее демонстрация на примере России</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>In Memory of Leif Johansen: The World’s First CGE Model and Its Application to Russia</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3197-4639</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Седалищев</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sedalishchev</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Викторович Седалищев, кандидат физико-математических наук, старший научный сотрудник; старший преподаватель; эксперт Центра макроэкономических исследований</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82</p><p>119285, Москва, Воробьевское шоссе, 6А</p><p>127006, Москва, Настасьинский пер., 3, стр. 2</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir V. Sedalishchev, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Senior Researcher; Senior Lecturer; Expert, Center for Macroeconomic Research</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p><p>6А, Vorob’evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285</p><p>3, str. 2, Nastas’inskiy per., Moscow, 127006</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Sedalischev-VV@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС ; Всероссийская академия внешней торговли, Министерство экономического развития Российской Федерации ; Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт Министерства финансов Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA ; Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation ; Financial Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>08</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>108</fpage><lpage>137</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Седалищев В.В., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Седалищев В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sedalishchev V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/28">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/28</self-uri><abstract><p>Сорок лет назад умер Лейф Йохансен, и, пожалуй, лучший способ почтить его память как ученого — это продемонстрировать, что его идеи до сих пор живы и способны вдохновлять на новые исследования. Поэтому в настоящей статье созданная им в конце 1950-х первая в мире CGE-модель MSG была адаптирована к современной российской статистике, а затем с ее помощью проведены расчеты последствий реализации двух групп сценариев: (1) присоединения к России в 2022 году новых четырех регионов и (2) полной торговой блокады России из-за обострения кризиса на Украине. В процессе подготовки входных данных был разработан алгоритм балансировки таблиц «Затраты — выпуск», основанный на некотором дискретном аналоге алгоритма эластичного фильтра. Этот подход вполне можно использовать и для подготовки входных данных для других однорегиональных CGE-моделей. Построенная российская версия MSG может использоваться при обучении студентов и аспирантов, а также в качестве модели-оценки при предварительных расчетах, отладке более сложных CGE-моделей или как инструмент при оценке границ импортозамещаемости, производственных границ страны и различных структурных параметров CGE-моделей. Несмотря на то что с момента создания CGE-модели MSG прошло шестьдесят с лишним лет, она до сих пор, по существу, не выглядит устаревшей и содержит некоторые подчас незаслуженно забытые в ряде современных CGE-моделей элементы.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Perhaps the best way to honor Leif Johansen’s legacy as a theorist on the fortieth anniversary of his death is to show that his ideas are still pertinent and able to inspire new research. This paper adapts the world’s first CGE model for MSG, which he created in the late 1950s, to current Russian statistics. The CGE model has been used to calculate the consequences to be anticipated from two groups of scenarios: 1) accession to Russia of four new regions in 2022; and 2) a complete trade blockade of Russia due to exacerbation of the crisis in Ukraine. During preparation of the input data, balancing of the input-output tables was achieved by developing an algorithm based on a certain discrete analog of the elastic filter algorithm. This approach can also be used to prepare input data for other single-region CGE models. The version of MSG that was constructed for Russia can be used for teaching university students, as a BOTE model, or for debugging more complex CGE models, or as an auxiliary tool for estimating import substitution frontiers, country production frontiers or various structural parameters of CGE models. Despite the more than six decades that have passed since its inception, the MSG model still does not look outdated in essence and contains some elements that are sometimes undeservedly overlooked in a number of modern CGE models.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Лейф Йохансен</kwd><kwd>модель многоотраслевого роста (MSG)</kwd><kwd>последствия кризиса на Украине</kwd><kwd>балансировка таблиц «Затраты — выпуск»</kwd><kwd>незамещаемый импорт</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Leif Johansen</kwd><kwd>Multi-Sectoral Growth model (MSG)</kwd><kwd>consequences of the crisis in Ukraine</kwd><kwd>balancing input-output tables</kwd><kwd>non-competitive imports</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Йохансен Л. Очерки макроэкономического планирования / пер. с англ. Г. А. Китова, Т. Е. Кузнецова. 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