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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-110-135</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-32</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Проблемы прогнозирования</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Problems in Forecasting</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Наукастинг и прогнозирование основных российских макроэкономических показателей с помощью MFBVAR-модели</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Nowcasting and Forecasting Key Russian Macroeconomic Variables With the MFBVAR Model</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4058-7331</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Фокин</surname><given-names>Н. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Fokin</surname><given-names>Nikita D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Никита Денисович Фокин, Научный сотрудник Центра математического моделирования экономических процессов; научный сотрудник,</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82;</p><p>125009, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5, стр. 1.</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Nikita D. Fokin, Research fellow; Research fellow,</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571;</p><p>3–5, str. 1, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 1125993.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">fokinikita@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>РАНХиГС; Институт экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Еconomic Policy</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>06</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>110</fpage><lpage>135</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Фокин Н.Д., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Фокин Н.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Fokin N.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/32">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/32</self-uri><abstract><p>В работе тестируется качество наукастов и прогнозов российского ВВП и его компонентов (в постоянных и текущих ценах) с помощью модели байесовской векторной авторегрессии с данными смешанной частотности (MFBVAR), которая является одной из наиболее продвинутых прогнозных моделей временных рядов. Она позволяет работать с данными квартальной и месячной частоты в рамках единой VAR-модели месячной частоты в пространстве состояний и учитывать внутриквартальную динамику месячных показателей, что позволяет улучшать прогнозные свойства с поступлением новой месячной информации. Также эта модель является устойчивой к проблеме неровного (рваного) края, что особенно важно при прогнозировании в реальном времени. За счет байесовского подхода к оценке с априорным распределением типа Миннесота в модели может участвовать большое количество предикторов. В статье описываются три эксперимента по псевдовневыборочному наукастингу и прогнозированию. Эксперименты различаются разной доступностью месячных данных. Показано, что эта модель позволяет существенно и статистически значимо улучшить качество наукастов и прогнозы на несколько шагов вперед для ВВП, потребления и переменных внешней торговли, а также некоторых других показателей относительно наивного бенчмарка, модели ARIMA и модели BVAR на квартальных данных. При этом тестовая выборка весьма репрезентативна и содержит два кризисных периода, а именно 2015 и 2020 годы. В оба кризиса модель достаточно точно оценивает масштабы спада и последующего восстановления экономической активности. При этом существенного улучшения качества прогнозов при поступлении новой информации не было диагностировано.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This paper examines the quality of nowcasts and forecasts for Russian GDP and its components (in constant and current prices) using a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression model (MFBVAR) which is currently one of the most advanced time series forecasting models. It enables use of quarterly and monthly frequency data within a single monthly frequency VAR model in a statespace form while taking into account the intra-quarter dynamics of monthly indicators; this approach improves forecasting accuracy when new monthly data is published. The MFBVAR model’s resistance to the jagged edge problem is especially important for real-time forecasting, and it can incorporate a large number of predictors because of its Bayesian estimation with a Minnesota-type prior distribution. The paper sets up three experiments with differing availability of monthly data in order to test pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting and forecasting. The MFBVAR model exhibits statistically significant outperformance compared to a naïve benchmark, as well as to ARIMA and quarterly BVAR models, in nowcasting and forecasting a few steps ahead for GDP, consumption and foreign trade variables. The test sample is also quite representative and covers two crisis periods, specifically 2015 and 2020. In both crises, the model accurately estimates the scale of the recession and recovery of economic activity. Nevertheless, there was no significant improvement in the quality of forecasts when new available monthly data was introduced.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>модели данных смешанной частотности</kwd><kwd>российская экономика</kwd><kwd>ВВП</kwd><kwd>потребление</kwd><kwd>инвестиции</kwd><kwd>экспорт</kwd><kwd>импорт</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>mixed frequency</kwd><kwd>mixed frequency data models</kwd><kwd>Russian economy</kwd><kwd>GDP</kwd><kwd>consumption</kwd><kwd>investments</kwd><kwd>export</kwd><kwd>import</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Полбин А. В., Скроботов А. А. 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