ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2025-6-36-67ecpolicy-522Research ArticleРеальный секторReal SectorДефицит кадров — стимул или ограничение инвестиций российских предприятий?Labor Shortage: A Stimulus or a Constraint on Investment by Russian Enterprises?https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7433-6621АнтосикЛ. В.AntosikL. V.

Любовь Валерьевна Антосик, кандидат экономических наук, начальник отдела отраслевого анализа и мониторинга предприятий экономического управления

350000, Краснодар, ул. Николая Кондратенко, 12

Lyubov V. Antosik, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Department Head

12, Nikolaya Kondratenko ul., Krasnodar, 350000

antosik_lv@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6801-2794ТуманянцК. А.TumanyantsK. A.

Карэн Авакович Туманянц, кандидат экономических наук, доцент, экономический советник экономического управления

350000, Краснодар, ул. Николая Кондратенко, 12

Karen A. Tumanyants, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Economic Advisor

12, Nikolaya Kondratenko ul., Krasnodar, 350000

karen.tumanyants@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-3682-5903БелаяА. В.BelayaA. V.

Анастасия Васильевна Белая, экономист 1-й категории отдела отраслевого анализа и мониторинга предприятий экономического управления

350000, Краснодар, ул. Николая Кондратенко, 12

Anastasia V. Belaya, Economist

12, Nikolaya Kondratenko ul., Krasnodar, 350000

anastasia_bel00@bk.ruЮжное главное управление Банка РоссииРоссияSouthern Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian FederationRussian Federation2025301220252063667Copyright © Антосик Л.В., Туманянц К.А., Белая А.В., 20252025Антосик Л.В., Туманянц К.А., Белая А.В.Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A., Belaya A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/522

Вызовы, возникающие в российской экономике со стороны рынка труда, могут оказывать разнонаправленное воздействие на инвестиции. Стимулирующее связано с внедрением трудосберегающих технологий и, как следствие, эффектом замещения труда капиталом, а сдерживающее — с невозможностью найма рабочей силы для использования приобретаемого оборудования. В работе представлено исследование влияния дефицита кадров на инвестиционную активность предприятий в РФ, основанное на данных регулярных опросов нефинансовых организаций, проводимых Банком России. Анализ показал, что ухудшение ситуации с обеспеченностью трудовыми ресурсами в российской экономике способствует росту инвестиций. Устойчивость зависимости к выбору спецификации уравнения, методу оценки и составу исходных данных позволяет предположить трудосберегающий характер совершаемых капиталовложений и сделать вывод о наличии эффекта замещения труда капиталом. Эффект наблюдается во всех федеральных округах, сильнее проявляется для промышленных и торговых предприятий, а также для крупного и среднего бизнеса. Значимость нехватки персонала для инвестиционной активности российского бизнеса с 2019 по 2023 год имеет тенденцию к росту. Необходимость компенсировать недоступность привлечения дополнительной рабочей силы ростом фондовооруженности для увеличения объемов производства в существенной степени определяет низкую чувствительность инвестиционной активности бизнеса к шокам валютного рынка и денежно-кредитной политики, а также рискам в целом. Полученные результаты позволяют говорить о возможном ослаблении инфляционного давления со стороны рынка труда в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе даже в условиях сохранения негативных демографических трендов.

The challenges in the Russian economy due to the labor market can have multidirectional effects on investment. A stimulus to investment might come from the adoption of labor-saving technologies and the resulting substitution of capital for labor. However, a constraint might be imposed by inability to hire labor to operate the newly acquired equipment. This paper presents a study of the impact of labor shortages on the investments made by enterprises in Russia as revealed in regular surveys of non-financial organizations conducted by the Central Bank of Russia. This analysis indicates that a diminishing labor supply is a factor that is increasing investment in the Russian economy. That this result is robust across different equations, evaluation methods, and initial datasets suggests that the investments are labor-saving in nature and supports the conclusion that capital is being substituted for labor. This effect is observed across all federal administrative districts and is most prevalent at industrial and trade enterprises, as well as at large and medium-sized businesses. The importance of labor shortages for investment in Russian businesses trended upward from 2019 to 2023. The need to compensate for lack of additional labor by increasing capital intensity in order to boost production volumes largely explains the low sensitivity of business investment to foreign exchange and monetary policy shocks and even to risk in general. The article’s findings suggest that inflationary pressure from the labor market will potentially subside in the medium and long term even as demographic trends continue to be negative.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.