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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2026-1-58-95</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-599</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Макроэкономика</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Macroeconomics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Динамика темпов экономического роста в России и ряде соседних стран в модели  фон  Неймана</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Dynamics of Economic Growth Rates in Russia and a Number of Neighboring Countries in the von Neumann Model</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3197-4639</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Седалищев</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sedalishchev</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Викторович Седалищев – кандидат физико-математических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатории исследований внешней торговли, Институт прикладных экономических исследований</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir V. Sedalishchev, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Lead Researcher, Laboratory of Foreign Trade Research, Institute of Applied Economic Research</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Sedalischev-VV@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>13</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>21</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>58</fpage><lpage>95</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Седалищев В.В., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Седалищев В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sedalishchev V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/599">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/599</self-uri><abstract><p>Модель фон Неймана является простейшим инструментом для оценки максимально возможного темпа устойчивого роста экономики. Хотя прогнозируемая ею динамика нестабильна и склонна к сильным колебаниям, а также дает социально неприемлемые равновесия, рассчитанные с ее помощью максимально возможные темпы долгосрочного устойчивого роста экономики могут служить ориентиром при постановки целей экономической политики страны. Вопрос о вычислении темпов роста в модели фон Неймана давно изучался многими авторами, однако касающихся макроэкономики эмпирических результатов по этой или близкой ей теме спектральных свойств многоотраслевых моделей накоплено как в России, так и за рубежом к сегодняшнему дню немного. В настоящей работе была предпринята попытка провести систематическую эмпирическую оценку этих темпов экономического роста для России и ряда соседних государств на протяжении последних трех десятилетий. Расчеты проводились как для классического варианта модели, так и для ее расширенной версии, учитывающей капитал и труд в качестве производимых и потребляемых ресурсов. Для калибровки модели использовались данные официальной статистики из таблиц «ресурсы – использование» или «затраты – выпуск» системы национальных счетов, а расчеты осуществлялись на разных уровнях агрегации для оценки устойчивости получаемых результатов. Нестандартное предположение о труде как о производимом по мере необходимости товаре неплохо выполняется в странах с открытой, но крайне жесткой миграционной политикой, примерами которых являются нефтяные монархии Персидского залива. Полученные темпы роста оказались в целом реалистичными и устойчивыми в динамике. Межстрановой анализ показал, что российская экономика на протяжении практически всего изучаемого периода имела потенциальные темпы роста, сопоставимые с Казахстаном и Китаем, особенно в расширенном варианте модели, при котором они многие годы составляли около 17%.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The von Neumann model is one of the simplest ways to assess the maximum possible rate of sustainable economic growth. Although the dynamics it predicts are unstable and prone to strong oscillations (and also yield socially unacceptable equilibria) calculating g, using the von Neumann model to determine the maximum possible rates of long-term sustainable economic expansion can serve as a guide in setting goals for a country’s economic policy. How to apply such a model in practical calculation of growth rates g has long been studied, but few empirical results concerning its use for macroeconomics or any similar topic with spectral properties in multi-sector models have appeared to date, either in Russia or elsewhere. Hence, this study offers a systematic empirical assessment of growth rates g for Russia and several neighboring countries over the past three decades. Calculations were carried out both for the “classical” version of the model and for its “extended” version, which takes capital and labor into account as resources both produced and consumed. National sources of official statistics from SUTs and IOTs were used for calibration, and the calculations themselves were carried out at different levels of aggregation in order to assess the stability of the results obtained. The non-standard assumption used here, that labor is a commodity produced as needed, is quite evident in countries with an open but extremely strict migration policy, such as the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The resultant growth rates turned out to be generally realistic and stable in dynamics even when aggregations are changed. Comparative analysis across countries indicated that the Russian economy in most years had potential growth rates comparable to those of Kazakhstan and China, especially in the “extended” model in which they held at about 17% for many years.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>многоотраслевая модель фон Неймана</kwd><kwd>максимальные темпы устойчивого роста</kwd><kwd>спектральные свойства экономик</kwd><kwd>таблицы «ресурсы – использование»</kwd><kwd>таблицы «затраты – выпуск</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>von Neumann’s growth model</kwd><kwd>maximum sustainable growth rates</kwd><kwd>spectral properties of economies</kwd><kwd>supply and use tables</kwd><kwd>input-output tables</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения научно-исследовательской работы государственного задания РАНХиГС.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">This article has been prepared as part of RANEPA’s state-commissioned research program.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Абрамов А. 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