ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2024-3-118-153ecpolicy-6Research ArticleСтатьиРоссия и Китай: мотивы, возможности и риски научно-технологического сближенияRussia and China: Motives, Opportunities, and Risks of Technological Partnershiphttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9596-4683БариноваВ. А.BarinovaV. А.

Вера Александровна Баринова, кандидат экономических наук, заведующий лабораторией исследований проблем устойчивого развития, Институт прикладных экономических исследований

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82

Vera А. Barinova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Laboratoryfor Sustainable Development Studies, Institute of Applied Economic Research

82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571

barinova-va@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1283-0362ЗемцовС. П.ZemtsovS. P.

Степан Петрович Земцов, кандидат географических наук, директор Центра экономической географии и регионалистики, Институт прикладных экономических исследований

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82

Stepan P. Zemtsov, Cand. Sci. (Geog.), Director of the Center for Economic Geography and Regional Studies,Institute of Applied Economic Research

82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571

zemtsov@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4731-5766ЛеваковП. А.LevakovP. A.

Павел Александрович Леваков, стажер-исследователь, лаборатория исследований проблем устойчивого развития, Институт прикладных экономических исследований

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82

Pavel A. Levakov, Research Assistant, Laboratory for Sustainable Development Studies, Institute of Applied Economic Research

82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571

levakov-pa@ranepa.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской ФедерацииРоссияRANEPARussian Federation202421072024193118153Copyright © Баринова В.А., Земцов С.П., Леваков П.А., 20242024Баринова В.А., Земцов С.П., Леваков П.А.Barinova V.А., Zemtsov S.P., Levakov P.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/6

После введенных за последние пять лет внешних ограничений в отношении России и Китая сократился их доступ к зарубежным технологиям, что создало некоторые стимулы для научно-технологического сближения двух стран. При этом, как показывает анализ стратегических документов, США и ЕС в перспективе будут наращивать санкционное давление. Поэтому описанный в статье опыт Китая по повышению технологического суверенитета, в том числе в условиях внешних ограничений, может быть полезен для многих стран. Целенаправленная долгосрочная научно-технологическая политика Китая позволила осуществить последовательный переход от заимствования простых технологий через промежуточные институты (специальные экономические зоны, совместные предприятия и др.) к глобальному лидерству в сфере НИОКР и высоких технологий за счет накопления человеческого капитала и предоставления преференций для местного инновационного бизнеса. Россия является одним из ведущих мировых научно-технологических центров, однако отстает в развитии отдельных высокотехнологичных бизнесов и экспорта, а также импортирует ряд передовых продуктов и технологий, часть из которых после ухода западных брендов быстро замещается китайскими аналогами. На основе проведенного SWOT-анализа потенциала научно-технологического сотрудничества России и Китая, подводящего итог исследованию, подтверждается возможность и целесообразность взаимодействия двух стран, особенно в станкостроении, микроэлектронике и авиакосмической сфере. При этом по многим технологическим направлениям выгоды от партнерства будут реализовываться в долгосрочной перспективе, в первую очередь в рамках совместных научных исследований. Также нельзя не учитывать риски, связанные с ростом технологической зависимости от одного партнера, потенциальным оттоком кадров и технологий для России, а для Китая — с введением вторичных санкций.

After external trade restrictions were imposed on Russia and China in recent years, their access to foreign technologies decreased. This created new incentives for scientific and technological partnership between the two countries. In addition, an analysis of strategic documents indicates that the US and the EU are likely to increase economic and technological pressure in the future. This article analyzes China’s experience in shoring up technological sovereignty under sanctions, an exercise which can be instructive for many countries. China’s long-term scientific and technological policy follows a catch-up development model, which has enabled a transition from borrowing simple technologies via specialized institutions (joint ventures, special economic zones, etc.) to global leadership in R&D and technologies that has been made possible through developing human capital and applying preferential treatment to local innovative businesses. Although Russia is one of the world’s leading scientific and technological centers, to some extent it lags in developing high-tech businesses and exports. Moreover, for some time it has been importing advanced products and technologies, some of which are now being quickly replaced by Chinese versions as Western companies have exited. The article applies a SWOT analysis to Russian-Chinese scientific and technological cooperation in order to highlight the benefits of this collaboration, especially concerning machine tools, microelectronics, and aerospace. The benefits from such partnership will materialize for most high-tech industries over the long run by means of joint scientific research. However, one cannot ignore the risks for Russia due to increased technological dependence on a single partner and the potential outflow of personnel and technology, as well as risks for China related to potential secondary sanctions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.