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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-44-73</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-730</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ФИНАНСОВЫЕ РЫНКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>FINANCIAL MARKETS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оптимизация инвестиционных портфелей с учетом восприятия денежно-кредитной политики</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Optimization of Investment Portfolios Taking into Account  the Behavioral Perception of Monetary Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Редькин</surname><given-names>Н. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Redkin</surname><given-names>N. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Никита Михайлович Редькин —  аспирант кафедры экономики и финансов Финансово-экономического института</p><p>625003, Тюмень, ул. Володарского, 6</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Nikita M. Redkin</p><p>6, Volodarskogo ul., Tyumen, 625003</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Nik_rk@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Тюменский государственный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Finance and Economics, University of Tyumen</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>06</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>44</fpage><lpage>73</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Редькин Н.М., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Редькин Н.М.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Redkin N.M.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/730">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/730</self-uri><abstract><p>В работе представлена адаптация современной поведенческой экономической теории к портфельному инвестированию в условиях российского фондового рынка при доступной частному неквалифицированному инвестору информации об изменениях на денежном рынке. Анализируется возможность оптимизации инвестиционного портфеля с использованием его коррекции на основе изменения показателей денежно-кредитной политики, доступных в СМИ широкому кругу инвесторов. Для этого применяется поведенческая модель выбора портфеля на основе стоимости акций на Московской бирже с учетом точки ориентира по теории перспектив в виде регулируемых Банком России показателей. В качестве регулируемых показателей денежно-кредитной политики применяются ключевая ставка и норматив обязательных резервов банков, а также показатели опосредованного влияния в виде инфляции, средней ставки по банковским вкладам и курса доллара к рублю. Поведенческая модель представляет собой модифицированную теорию средней дисперсии. Расчет базовых показателей доходности и риска ведется по основным поведенческим моделям — формулам кумулятивной теории перспектив и «ментальных счетов». Автор рассматривает различные варианты формирования портфеля в соответствии с изменением уровня избегания риска. В результате сравнения моделей оптимизации портфеля средней дисперсии и моделей по модифицированной теории средней дисперсии с использованием поведенческих факторов выявлены более высокие показатели соотношения риска и доходности в прогнозируемом периоде. В анализируемый период все модели в среднем располагались на линии эффективных портфелей Марковица. В качестве дальнейшего развития поведенческой теории в области портфельной оптимизации предложены варианты адаптации модели в зависимости не только от точек ориентира, но и от изменения коэффициентов принятия риска и оценки вероятности.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The paper presents an adaptation of modern behavioral economic theory to portfolio investment in the Russian stock market. The author analyzes the possibility of optimizing the investment portfolio for a private investor using portfolio correction based on changes in monetary policy indicators available in media sources. The behavioral model of portfolio selection is used, based on the value of shares on Moscow Exchange and taking into account a reference point in the theory of prospects in the form of indicators regulated by the Bank of Russia. The key rate and the standard of required reserves, inflation, the average rate on bank deposits, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble are used as monetary policy indicators. The behavioral model is a modified theory of average variance, in which the calculation of profitability and risk is carried out according to the main behavioral theories, namely the cumulative prospect and mental accounting theory. The author considers various options for forming a portfolio in accordance with the level of risk aversion. As a result of comparing the models of optimization of the average variance portfolio and the models based on the modified theory of average variance using behavioral factors, higher risk­return ratios of the modified models were revealed in the forecast period, while for the analyzed period all models were located on the line of Markowitz efficient portfolio. As a further development of the portfolio behavioral theory, the possibilities of adapting the model are proposed not only depending on the points of reference, but also depending on changes in risk acceptance coefficients and probability estimates.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>кумулятивная теория перспектив</kwd><kwd>поведенческие финансы</kwd><kwd>современная портфельная теория</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>cumulative prospect theory</kwd><kwd>behavioral finance</kwd><kwd>modern portfolio theory</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Маневич В. Портфельный выбор в российской экономике и политика денежных властей в 2007–2009 годах // Вопросы экономики. 2010. № 3. С. 24–38.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Manevich V. 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