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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2022-1-126-153</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-76</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИКА ЭНЕРГЕТИКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENERGY ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Повышение акцизов на нефтепродукты — негативный эффект для бюджета и экономики</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Increase in Excise Tax Rates on Gasoline and Diesel Fuels—a Negative Effect on the Budget and the Economy</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8874-8894</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гордеев</surname><given-names>Д. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gordeev</surname><given-names>D. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дмитрий Сергеевич Гордеев, кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Центра исследований отраслевых рынков Института прикладных экономических исследований </p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82; 119285, Москва, Воробьевское шоссе, 6а</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dmitry S. Gordeev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Center for Industrial Market Research, Institute of Applied Economic Research; Research</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571; 6A, Vorobyevskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">gordeev@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6530-2881</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Галеева</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Galeeva</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Екатерина Андреевна Галеева, младший научный сотрудник Центра исследований отраслевых рынковИнститута прикладных экономических исследований; аспирант</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82; 125993, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ekaterina A. Galeeva, Junior Researcher, Center for Industrial Market Research, Institute of Applied Economic Research; Postgraduate Student</p><p> 82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571; 3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">galeeva-ea@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации; Всероссийская академия внешней торговли</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy&#13;
and Public Administration (RANEPA); Russian Foreign Trade Academy</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации; Институт экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>02</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>17</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>126</fpage><lpage>153</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Гордеев Д.С., Галеева Е.А., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Гордеев Д.С., Галеева Е.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Gordeev D.S., Galeeva E.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/76">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/76</self-uri><abstract><p>Нефтеперерабатывающая отрасль как одна из составляющих топливно-энергетического комплекса является опорной структурой экономики России. Потребление нефтепродуктов обеспечивает поступления в региональные и федеральный бюджеты от различных видов налогов. Повышение ставки акцизов на нефтепродукты, проводимое в России в последние годы, не учитывает в достаточной степени влияние применяемой меры на спрос на нефтепродукты. Это может снижать эффективность фискальной политики. Однако вопрос о влиянии роста цен нефтепродуктов на их потребление в России изучен недостаточно, а научно обоснованных значений соответствующих эластичностей потребления не представлено в открытых источниках. В настоящей статье предложена спецификация модели спроса на нефтепродукты в сфере автомобильного транспорта: модель динамическая, учитывающая индивидуальные региональные эффекты. Использованный подход позволяет отделить краткосрочные эффекты от долгосрочных. Он подразумевает формирование объемов потребления бензина за счет трех аппроксимируемых факторов: среднего пробега автомобиля, удельного расхода топлива и количества автомобилей. Оценивание модели проводилось на основе базы данных панельной структуры по субъектам РФ c 2010 года по 2016-й, в помесячной детализации. Краткосрочная эластичность по цене составила –1,1, а долгосрочная — –2,3. Найдены оценки краткосрочных и долгосрочных эластичностей по доходу и по количеству автомобилей на душу населения. Полученные результаты позволяют сделать следующий вывод. В России наблюдается эластичный спрос на нефтепродукты, и в существующих экономических условиях повышение ставки акцизов на 0,4 рубля за литр может привести к сокращению потребления бензина в краткосрочном и долгосрочном периодах на 0,93 и 2% соответственно. В краткосрочной перспективе это едва ли повлияет на бюджет, в долгосрочной — повлияет негативно.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The oil refining industry is one of the most important structures of the Russian economy. Consumption of oil products provides revenues to the regional and federal budgets through different types of taxes. Increases in excise tax rates carried out in Russia in recent years do not appropriately take into account the impact of this measure on the demand for oil products, thus enabling a decrease in the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Nevertheless, neither are the determinants of oil products consumption properly investigated, nor have science-based estimates of the corresponding elasticities of consumption been submitted in publicly available sources. This article provides a specification of the model of demand for oil products by motor vehicles. Estimation of the model is performed using a detailed monthly panel data set for the subjects of the Russian Federation over the period 2010–2016. The short-term price elasticity constitutes –1.1, while the long-term price elasticity is –2.3. Estimates of the short- and long-term elasticities with respect to income and the number of cars per capita are also found. The obtained results allow one to conclude that in Russia there is elastic demand for oil products and, under existing economic conditions, the current increase in the excise tax rates (by about 0.4 rubles per liter) may lead to a decrease in gasoline consumption in the short and long terms by 0.93% and 2% per car respectively, being neutral for the budget in the short run and negative in the long run.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>акциз</kwd><kwd>нефтепродукты</kwd><kwd>эластичность</kwd><kwd>автомобильный транспорт</kwd><kwd>бензин</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>excise tax</kwd><kwd>oil products</kwd><kwd>elasticity</kwd><kwd>road transport</kwd><kwd>gasoline</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гордеев Д. С., Косухина Е. А. 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