ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2020-4-8-29ecpolicy-762Research ArticleМакроэкономикаMacroeconomicsОптимальная инфляция в России: теория и практикаOptimal Inflation in Russia: Theory and PracticeДробышевскийС. М.DrobyshevskyS. M.

Сергей Михайлович Дробышевский — доктор экономических наук, директор по научной работе; заведующий лабораторией макроэкономических исследований

125009, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 84

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.).

dsm@iep.ruТрунинП. В.TruninP. V.

Павел Вячеславович Трунин — доктор экономических наук, директор Центра изучения проблем центральных банков; руководитель научного направления «Макроэкономика и финансы»

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 84

125009, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5

Pavel v. Trunin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.)

pt@ranepa.ruСинельникова-МурылеваЕ. В.Sinelnikova-MurylevaE. V.

Елена Владимировна Синельникова-Мурылева — кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Центра изучения проблем центральных банков

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 84

Elena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.).

e.sinelnikova@ranepa.ruМакееваН. В.MakeevaN. V.

Наталья Владимировна Макеева — младший научный сотрудник Центра изучения проблем центральных банков

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 84

Natalja V. Makeeva

makeeva-nv@ranepa.ruГребенкинаА. М.GrebenkinaA. M.

Алина Михайловна Гребенкина — младший научный сотрудник Центра изучения проблем центральных банков; инженер

119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 84

119991, Москва, ул. Ленинские горы, 1/46

Alina M. Grebenkina

grebenkina-am@ranepa.ruИнститут экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара; РАНХиГСРоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРАНХиГС; Институт экономической политики им. Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian FederationРАНХиГСРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРАНХиГС; МГУ им. М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202028082020154829Copyright © Дробышевский С.М., Трунин П.В., Синельникова-Мурылева Е.В., Макеева Н.В., Гребенкина А.М., 20202020Дробышевский С.М., Трунин П.В., Синельникова-Мурылева Е.В., Макеева Н.В., Гребенкина А.М.Drobyshevsky S.M., Trunin P.V., Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Makeeva N.V., Grebenkina A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/762

Целью статьи является попытка комплексного ответа на вопрос об оптимальности выбранного Банком России таргета по инфляции с учетом теоретических концепций оптимальной инфляции, международной практики установления целевой инфляции, а также эконометрических оценок. Для достижения этой цели в статье представлено обобщение теоретических механизмов оптимальности нулевого либо положительного уровня инфляции и сделан вывод о значительном количестве механизмов, приводящих к оптимальности положительной инфляции. Далее представлен анализ странового опыта инфляционного таргетирования, позволяющий сопоставить значение цели по инфляции и частоту ее пересмотра в России, развитых странах и странах с формирующимся рынком. В работе представлены авторские оценки оптимальной инфляции, основанные на применении метода панельной пороговой регрессии для четырех групп стран, включающих Россию, за период 1990–2018 годов: крупнейших стран с формирующимся рынком; стран с формирующимся рынком, важным источником дохода которых является экспорт; постсоветских стран и стран Центральной и Восточной Европы. Полученные оценки позволяют сделать вывод в пользу оптимальности положительного уровня инфляции на уровне 3,5–4% для однородных выборок стран, включающих Россию. В работе также показано, что низкие значения инфляции (до порогового уровня, соответствующего цели по инфляции в России) ассоциируются с экономическим ростом. В заключении работы на основании проведенного исследования сделан вывод об обоснованности текущей цели по инфляции и представлены предложения по дальнейшему совершенствованию политики инфляционного таргетирования в России.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of optimality of the Bank of Russia’s inflation target. It considers the theoretical framework of optimal inflation, international practice of inflation target setting, and econometric estimates. The paper summarizes the theoretical mechanisms of optimality of zero or positive inflation and concludes that there are a significant number of mechanisms leading to optimality of positive inflation in the literature. Further, the countries’ experience of inflation targeting is analyzed, and the value of the inflation target and the frequency of its revision in Russia, developed countries and emerging market economies are compared. The article also provides the authors’ estimates of optimal inflation based on the application of the panel threshold regression method for four groups of countries, including Russia, for the period 1990–2018: the largest emerging market economies; emerging market economies with export as a key source of income; post-Soviet countries; and countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study provides some empirical evidence in favor of the optimal inflation rate varying from 3.5% to 4% for homogeneous samples of countries, including Russia. The results also show that low inflation (up to the threshold level equal to the inflation target in Russia) is associated with economic growth. The study concludes that the current inflation target in Russia is valid and provides some suggestions regarding further improvements of inflation targeting policy in Russia.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.