ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2026-3-78-111ecpolicy-771Research ArticleРЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАREGIONAL ECONOMYИнтернет-торговля и экономическая активность в регионах РоссииE-Commerce and Economic Activity in Russia’s Regionshttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-5884-0549ИвахненкоТ. Ю.IvakhnenkoT. Yu.

Татьяна Юрьевна Ивахненко, Научный сотрудник лаборатории математического моделирования экономических процессов  

125993, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5 

Tatiana Yu. Ivakhnenko, Research Fellow, Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993

ivakhnenko@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4683-8194ПолбинА. В.PolbinA. V.

Андрей Владимирович Полбин, Доктор экономических наук, заведующий лабораторией математического моделирования экономических процессов; руководитель экспертной группы

125993, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5    

107016, Москва, Неглинная ул., 12

Andrey V. Polbin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes; Head of the Expert Group

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993  

12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016

apolbin@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6667-9958Синельников-МурылевС. Г.Sinelnikov-MurylevS. G.

Сергей Германович Синельников-Мурылев, Доктор экономических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник  

125993, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5

Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Lead Research Fellow

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993

sinelnikov-sg@iep.ruИнститут экономической политики им. Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияGaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian FederationИнститут экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара; Банк РоссииРоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Bank of RussiaRussian Federation20262806202621378111Copyright © Ивахненко Т.Ю., Полбин А.В., Синельников-Мурылев С.Г., 20262026Ивахненко Т.Ю., Полбин А.В., Синельников-Мурылев С.Г.Ivakhnenko T.Y., Polbin A.V., Sinelnikov-Murylev S.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/771

В российской литературе наблюдается относительный дефицит эмпирических исследований, посвященных оценке влияния различных аспектов цифровизации на социально-экономическое развитие регионов России. Несмотря на растущую роль цифровых технологий в экономическом развитии регионов, их воздействие на ключевые параметры региональной экономической активности остается недостаточно изученным. Цель настоящего исследования заключается в анализе взаимосвязи одного из наиболее динамично развивающихся индикаторов цифровизации — интенсивности интернет-торговли — с уровнем безработицы и показателями деятельности малых и средних предприятий (МСП) в российских регионах. В качестве индикатора интенсивности интернет-торговли используются два показателя — доля продаж через интернет в общем объеме розничных продаж и объем продаж через интернет на душу населения в регионе. Используя панельные данные по субъектам России за 2014–2023 годы и методы эконометрического моделирования, авторы выявили статистически значимые взаимосвязи между развитием интернет-торговли и выбранными показателями экономической активности в регионах. Во-первых, установлена отрицательная взаимосвязь между долей продаж через интернет в общем объеме розничной торговли и уровнем безработицы, что может указывать на потенциальную роль интернет-торговли в создании новых рабочих мест и расширении занятости. Во-вторых, обнаружена положительная взаимосвязь между объемом интернет-продаж на душу населения и показателями деятельности МСП на душу населения, отражающая сопутствующую связь цифровых каналов сбыта с активностью МСП. Полученные результаты представляют ценность для формирования региональной экономической политики, акцентируя необходимость развития цифровой инфраструктуры и поддержки интернет-торговли как значимого фактора экономической активности.

Empirical studies examining the impact of various aspects of digitalization on the socio-economic development of regional economies are relatively scarce in the Russian academic literature. Despite the growing role of digital technologies in regional economic development, their effects on key indicators of regional economic activity remain insufficiently explored. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of one of the fastest-growing indicators of digitalization — e-commerce intensity — on the unemployment rate as well as on SME performance across Russia’s regions. Two indicators were employed to capture e-commerce intensity: the share of online sales in total retail turnover and the volume of online sales per capita in a region. By using panel data for Russian regions from 2014 to 2023 and applying econometric modeling techniques, statistically significant relationships were identified between the development of e-commerce and selected indicators of regional economic activity. First, there is a negative correlation between the share of online sales in total retail trade and the unemployment rate, which may indicate the potential of e-commerce to create jobs and expand employment. Second, a positive correlation emerged between per capita online sales and SME performance per capita and is indicative of an association between digital sales channels and SME activity. These findings should facilitate the formulation of regional economic policy by emphasizing the importance of developing digital infrastructure and supporting e-commerce as a significant factor in economic activity.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.