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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2020-5-60-89</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-776</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ВНУТРЕННЯЯ ТОРГОВЛЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>DOMESTIC TRADE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Внутренняя торговля России: применение гравитационной модели</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Russian Domestic Trade: Applying the Gravity Model for Rail Cargo Flows</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Томаев</surname><given-names>А. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tomaev</surname><given-names>A. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Александр Олегович Томаев — научный сотрудник лаборатории системного анализа отраслевых рынков  </p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexander O. Tomaev    </p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">tomaev-ao@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Каукин</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kaukin</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андрей Сергеевич Каукин — кандидат экономических наук, заведующий лабораторией системного анализа отраслевых рынков; заведующий лабораторией отраслевых рынков и инфраструктуры</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82</p><p>125009, Москва, Газетный пер., 3–5, стр. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey S. Kaukin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)  </p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571  </p><p>3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kaukin@iep.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Павлов</surname><given-names>П. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pavlov</surname><given-names>P. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Павел Николаевич Павлов — старший научный сотрудник лаборатории системного анализа отраслевых рынков</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Pavel N. Pavlov    </p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">pavlov@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>РАНХиГС</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>РАНХиГС; &#13;
Институт экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; &#13;
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>10</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>60</fpage><lpage>89</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Томаев А.О., Каукин А.С., Павлов П.Н., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Томаев А.О., Каукин А.С., Павлов П.Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Tomaev A.O., Kaukin A.S., Pavlov P.N.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/776">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/776</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье разрабатывается модель, объясняющая объемы торговых потоков между регионами России. В основе работы лежат данные о грузовых железнодорожных перевозках за 2012–2016 годы. Излагаются предпосылки, обосновывающие использование гравитационной модели для изучения торговли с использованием одного вида транспорта. Для целей корректной оценки гравитационного уравнения на основе оригинальной авторской методики, адаптированной к имеющимся данным, решается проблема перехода от натуральных объемов торговли к стоимостным. Результаты исследования показывают, что классические факторы внешней торговли имеют хорошую объясняющую силу при моделировании внутренней торговли России посредством железнодорожного транспорта. Коэффициенты при переменных валовых региональных продуктов и расстояния оказались близки к тем, которые были получены в предыдущих исследованиях по международной и внутренней торговле. Наряду с переменной расстояния в модель включался показатель среднего тарифа за перевозку. Значимость коэффициентов обеих переменных подтвердила предположение, что на торговлю могут оказывать влияние не только транспортные, но и иные торговые издержки. Представленные результаты дают основание утверждать, что объем экспорта региона-отправителя относительно его ВРП положительно связан с объемом двусторонних межрегиональных товарных потоков. Включение в модель набора индикаторов на регионы практически не изменило коэффициенты при переменных расстояния и среднего тарифа на перевозку, что свидетельствует об устойчивости полученных оценок. Фактор уровня развитости инфраструктуры оказался незначимым. Фактором, отрицательно влияющим на объем торговли, является уровень коррупции в регионе-получателе.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This article uses the gravity model to explain the trade flows between the regions of Russia. The data used contains information on all rail freight flows in tonnes for the period 2012–2016. The authors discuss the assumptions that make the gravity model applicable for trade by one mode of transport. For the purpose of correct estimation of the gravity equation, the special method of obtaining trade values in rubles was developed. The coefficients of distance and gross regional products are close to the results of previous studies on international and domestic trade. Along with the distance factor, the average rail tariff variable was included in the model. The significance of the coefficients of both variables has confirmed that trade flows are determined not only by transport costs, but by other trade costs, too. The results suggest that the export volume of the sending region proportional to its output is positively related to the volume of bilateral domestic trade flows. Accounting for regional fixed effects has not changed the coefficients of distance and average tariffs significantly, indicating the robustness of the estimates. No proof has been found for the impact of infrastructure on trade. An institutional factor that can negatively affect the trade volume is the level of corruption in the recipient region.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>внутренняя торговля</kwd><kwd>грузоперевозки</kwd><kwd>железнодорожный транспорт</kwd><kwd>гравитационная модель</kwd><kwd>институты</kwd><kwd>инфраструктура.</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>domestic trade</kwd><kwd>freight flows</kwd><kwd>railway transport</kwd><kwd>gravity equation</kwd><kwd>institutional quality</kwd><kwd>transport infrastructure.</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гусев А. Б. Ослабленная экономическая интеграция регионов России — угроза территориальной целостности страны // Общество и экономика. 2011. № 10. С. 50–66.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Gusev A. 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