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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2021-1-8-37</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-79</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change?</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change?</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Kotlikoff</surname><given-names>L. J.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kotlikoff</surname><given-names>L. J.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Laurence J. Kotlikoff, PhD (Econ.). Department of Economics</p><p>270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215</p><p>1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138</p><p>3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Laurence J. Kotlikoff, PhD (Econ.). Department of Economics</p><p>270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215</p><p>1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138</p><p>3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kotlikoff@bu.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Polbin</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Polbin</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Andrey V. Polbin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., 119571, Moscow</p><p>3–5, Gazetny per., 125009, Moscow</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Polbin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., 119571, Moscow</p><p>3–5, Gazetny per., 125009, Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">apolbin@iep.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Zubarev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Zubarev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Andrey V. Zubarev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Zubarev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)</p><p>82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">zubarev@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>Соединённые Штаты Америки</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>United States</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>02</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>8</fpage><lpage>37</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Kotlikoff L.J., Polbin A.V., Zubarev A.V., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Kotlikoff L.J., Polbin A.V., Zubarev A.V.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kotlikoff L.J., Polbin A.V., Zubarev A.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/79">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/79</self-uri><abstract><p>The 2015 Paris climate accord (Paris Agreement) is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature to limit climate change. But it may be doing the opposite in permitting a slow phase-in of CO2 emission mitigation. The accord asks its 195 national signatories to specify their emission reductions and to raise those contributions over time. However, there is no mechanism to enforce these pledges. This said, the accord puts dirty energy producers on notice that their days are numbered. Unfortunately, this “use it or lose it” message may accelerate the extraction and sale of fossil fuels and, thereby, permanently worsen climate change. Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted, highly troubling Green Paradox. Its framework properly treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s—an externality that is, in part, irreversible and, if large enough, can tip the climate to a permanently bad state. Our paper shows that delaying abatement can be worse than doing nothing. Indeed, it can make all generations worse off. In contrast, immediate policy action can make all generations better off. Finally, we question the standard use of infinitely lived, single-agent models to determine optimal abatement policy. Intergenerational altruism underlies such models. But its assumption lacks empirical support. Moreover, were such altruism widespread, effective limits on CO2 emissions would, presumably, already be in place. Unfortunately, optimal abatement prescriptions derived from such models can differ, potentially dramatically, from those actually needed to correct the negative climate externality that today’s generations are imposing on tomorrow’s.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The 2015 Paris climate accord (Paris Agreement) is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature to limit climate change. But it may be doing the opposite in permitting a slow phase-in of CO2 emission mitigation. The accord asks its 195 national signatories to specify their emission reductions and to raise those contributions over time. However, there is no mechanism to enforce these pledges. This said, the accord puts dirty energy producers on notice that their days are numbered. Unfortunately, this “use it or lose it” message may accelerate the extraction and sale of fossil fuels and, thereby, permanently worsen climate change. Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted, highly troubling Green Paradox. Its framework properly treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s—an externality that is, in part, irreversible and, if large enough, can tip the climate to a permanently bad state. Our paper shows that delaying abatement can be worse than doing nothing. Indeed, it can make all generations worse off. In contrast, immediate policy action can make all generations better off. Finally, we question the standard use of infinitely lived, single-agent models to determine optimal abatement policy. Intergenerational altruism underlies such models. But its assumption lacks empirical support. Moreover, were such altruism widespread, effective limits on CO2 emissions would, presumably, already be in place. Unfortunately, optimal abatement prescriptions derived from such models can differ, potentially dramatically, from those actually needed to correct the negative climate externality that today’s generations are imposing on tomorrow’s.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>climate change</kwd><kwd>Paris Accord</kwd><kwd>CO2 emissions</kwd><kwd>overlapping generations</kwd><kwd>CO2 taxes</kwd><kwd>green paradox</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>climate change</kwd><kwd>Paris Accord</kwd><kwd>CO2 emissions</kwd><kwd>overlapping generations</kwd><kwd>CO2 taxes</kwd><kwd>green&#13;
paradox</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">The work of Andrey Polbin and Andrey Zubarev on the article was prepared within the framework of a research grant funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant ID: 075-15-2020-908).</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The work of Andrey Polbin and Andrey Zubarev on the article was prepared within the framework of a research grant funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant ID: 075-15-2020-908).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Acemoglu D., Aghion P., Bursztyn L., Hemous D. The Environment and Directed Technical Change. 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