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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecpolicy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economic Policy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5124</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-2658</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Economic Policy</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18288/1994-5124-2026-4-110-139</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecpolicy-842</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Международная экономика</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>International Economy</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Роль экономической интеграции в ослаблении санкционного давления на технологичный импорт</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>How Economic Integration Mitigates Sanctions on Machinery and Equipment Imports</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7679-5810</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Фиранчук</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Firanchuk</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Александр Сергеевич Фиранчук, PhD (Econ.), ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатории исследований внешней торговли Института прикладных экономических исследований</p><p>119571, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 82, стр. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexander S. Firanchuk, PhD (Econ.), Lead Researcher at the Laboratory for International Trade Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research</p><p>82, str. 1, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">firanchuk@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>08</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>21</volume><issue>4</issue><elocation-id>110–139</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Фиранчук А.С., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Фиранчук А.С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Firanchuk A.S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/842">https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/842</self-uri><abstract><p>Сквозные поставки через третьи страны один из способов снижения негативных последствий санкционного давления на импорт техники (ТН ВЭД 84–92). В работе эмпирически тестируется гипотеза о возникновении таких поставок на выборке стран ближнего зарубежья, по которым доступна помесячная торговая статистика за 2018–2025 годы, это три члена ЕАЭС: Армения, Казахстан и Киргизия, а также Азербайджан, Грузия, Молдавия и Узбекистан. Регрессионные оценки выявляют устойчивую связь между импортом техники из третьих стран и ее последующим экспортом в Россию после февраля 2022 года для стран ЕАЭС. Точность регрессионного подхода ограничена качеством официальной статистики торговли, которое может быть низким из-за вероятного недоучета части поставок. Дополнительно применяется гравитационный подход, не требующий использования статистики по экспорту в Россию. На основе динамики ВВП стран оценивается контрфактический уровень неттоимпорта техники, который затем сопоставляется с фактическим без учета поставок в Россию. Превышение фактического нетто-импорта над расчетным интерпретируется как сквозные поставки, поток которых через страны ЕАЭС оценивается в 7,1 млрд долл. в год. Оба подхода дают согласующиеся между собой результаты. Во-первых, сквозные поставки техники в Россию обнаруживаются только через страны ЕАЭС, что указывает на более высокую значимость трансакционных издержек и простоты таможенных процедур по сравнению, например, с логистическими преимуществами других стран. Во-вторых, в поставках преобладают товары, ранее ввезенные из нейтральных стран, что согласуется с интерпретацией сквозной торговли как механизма снижения издержек, а не обхода санкционных ограничений. Дополнительно отмечен вероятный систематический недоучет реэкспорта Киргизии, тогда как торговая статистика Армении и Казахстана оценивается как более достоверная.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Shipments through third countries are one way to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions on imports of machinery and equipment (HS 84–92). The hypothesis that such shipments emerged after 2022 is tested empirically in this paper by using a sample of CIS countries for which monthly trade statistics are available from 2018 through 2025. The sample includes three EAEU members Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan as well as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. Regression estimates reveal a stable relationship between imports of machinery and equipment from third countries and their subsequent exports to Russia after February 2022 for EAEU countries. The accuracy of the regression-based approach is limited by the quality of official statistics, which are likely to underreport some shipments. In addition, the paper applies a gravity-based approach that does not require the use of data on exports to Russia. A counterfactual amount of net imports of machinery and equipment is inferred from GDP dynamics and then compared with actual net imports excluding shipments to Russia. The excess of actual net imports over the estimated level is interpreted as transshipments, whose flow via EAEU countries is estimated at USD 7.1 billion per year. Both approaches converge on two consistent conclusions. First, transshipments of machinery and equipment to Russia are evident only via EAEU countries; this indicates that transaction costs and simplified customs procedures are more important than the logistical advantages of other countries. Second, these shipments consist mostly of goods initially imported from neutral countries, a fact which suggests that transient trade is a way to reduce costs rather than circumvent sanctions. The paper’s analysis also shows probable systematic underreporting of Kyrgyzstan’s reexports, whereas the trade statistics of Armenia and Kazakhstan seem more reliable.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>санкции</kwd><kwd>внешняя торговля</kwd><kwd>импорт</kwd><kwd>реэкспорт</kwd><kwd>ЕАЭС</kwd><kwd>гравитационная модель торговли</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>sanctions</kwd><kwd>international trade</kwd><kwd>imports</kwd><kwd>re-exports</kwd><kwd>EAEU</kwd><kwd>gravity model of trade</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения государственного задания РАНХиГС.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The article has been prepared as part of a RANEPA research program commissioned by the state.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Волчкова Н. 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