ecpolicyЭкономическая политикаEconomic Policy1994-51242411-2658Economic Policy10.18288/1994-5124-2026-4-140-175ecpolicy-844Research ArticleМеждународная экономикаInternational EconomyТрансформация мировой торговли в условиях геоэкономической фрагментации: роль международных транспортных коридоровTransformation of World Trade Under Geoeconomic Fragmentation: The Role of International Transport Corridorshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3109-4786ОсиповВ. С.OsipovV. S.

Владимир Сергеевич Осипов, Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой мировой экономики и управления внешнеэкономической деятельностью, факультет государственного управления

119234, Москва, Ленинские Горы, 1, стр. 46

Vladimir S. Osipov, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Head of the Department of World Economy and Management of Foreign Economic Activity, School of Public Administration

1-46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234

vs.ossipov@spa.msu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6094-3743ЛенковИ. Н.LenkovI. N.

Илья Николаевич Ленков, Кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры мировой экономики и управления внешнеэкономической деятельностью, факультет государственного управления

119234, Москва, Ленинские Горы, 1, стр. 46

Ilya N. Lenkov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of World Economy and Management of Foreign Economic Activity, School of Public Administration

1-46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234

Lenkov@spa.msu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9261-6392КлейменовА. А.KleimenovA. A.

Александр Александрович Клейменов, Начальник информационно-аналитического отдела, Проектно-конструкторско-технологическое бюро пассажирского комплекса – филиал ОАО «РЖД»; соискатель, МГУ им. М. В. Ломоносова

119234, Москва, Ленинские Горы, 1, стр. 46

Alexander A. Kleimenov, Head of the Information and Analytics Department, Design and Engineering Bureau of the Passenger Complex Branch JSC “Russian Railways”; Applicant for a Cand. Sci. (Econ.) degree, Lomonosov Moscow State University

1-46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234

AAKleimenov@gmail.comМГУ им. М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationПроектно-конструкторско-технологическое бюро пассажирского комплекса – филиал ОАО «РЖД»; МГУ им. М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияDesign and Engineering Bureau of the Passenger Complex Branch JSC “Russian Railways”; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202620082026214140–175Copyright © Осипов В.С., Ленков И.Н., Клейменов А.А., 20262026Осипов В.С., Ленков И.Н., Клейменов А.А.Osipov V.S., Lenkov I.N., Kleimenov A.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecpolicy.ru/jour/article/view/844

Разработана концептуальная модель влияния международных транспортных коридоров (МТК) на архитектуру мировой торговли в условиях геоэкономической фрагментации. В отличие от существующих подходов, фокусирующихся на экономических детерминантах транспортных издержек, предложенная модель интегрирует положения новой экономической географии, теории глобальных цепочек ценности и институционального подхода с учетом геополитических рисков, институционального качества и эффектов сетевой связности. Выявлено семь механизмов влияния МТК на географическую структуру торговли: налаживание торговых потоков, переориентация торговых потоков, агломерация производства, трансформация глобальных цепочек ценности, институциональная интеграция, сетевая связность, цифровизация логистики, а также разработана расширенная спецификация гравитационного уравнения с включением выявленных факторов. Обосновано, что в условиях перехода к полицентричной модели мировой экономики МТК трансформируются из инструмента снижения издержек в элемент системы экономической безопасности государств и объект геополитической конкуренции между макрорегиональными блоками. Результаты исследования применимы при разработке стратегий развития транспортных систем и внешнеэкономической политики. Работоспособность модели подтверждена в ходе пилотного расчета на эмпирических данных евразийской торговли за 2024 год с использованием метода пуассоновского псевдо-максимального правдоподобия. Полученные оценки в рамках кросс-секционной выборки из 28 направленных торговых пар верифицируют теоретически ожидаемые знаки коэффициентов для переменных транспортной связности, институционального качества, цифровизации и геополитических рисков. Особое внимание уделено детерминантам сетевой связности и компенсации смещений, вызванных эндогенностью инфраструктурных инвестиций. Предложенный подход закладывает методологическую основу для долгосрочного прогнозирования пространственных эффектов интеграции в условиях фрагментации глобального рынка.

This article proposes a conceptual model for the impact of international transport corridors (ITCs) on world trade architecture under geoeconomic fragmentation. This model differs from previous approaches that focus on the economic determinants of transport costs in that it integrates the features of the new economic geography, global value chains theory, and an institutional approach so that geopolitical risks, institutional quality, and network connectivity effects are taken into account. Seven ways in which ITCs affect the geographical structure of trade are identified: creation of trade flows, reorientation of trade flows, production agglomeration, transformation of global value chains, institutional integration, network connectivity, and digitalization of logistics. Those factors are then included in an extended version of the gravity equation. As the world economy makes the transition to a polycentric model, the conclusion supported is that ITCs are evolving from a cost-reduction tool into an element of states’ economic security and an object of geopolitical competition between macro-regional blocs. These results may assist in devising transport system development strategies and foreign economic policy. The model’s applicability is confirmed through a pilot estimation derived from empirical data for Eurasian trade in 2024 using the Poisson PseudoMaximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The resulting estimates from among a cross-sectional sample of 28 directed trade pairs confirm the theoretically expected indications of the coefficients arrived at for transport connectivity, institutional quality, digitalization, and geopolitical risk variables. The article devotes particular attention to determinants of network connectivity and mitigation of bias caused by the endogeneity of infrastructure investments. The proposed approach establishes a methodological foundation for long-term forecasting of spatial integration effects under global market fragmentation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.