Factors of Economic Growth in the Late USSR from a Spatial Perspective
https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2022-2-88-119
Abstract
In this paper, the authors propose their estimates of the factors of economic growth in the late USSR, accounting for heterogeneity of its territories. Utilizing panel data for the republics of the former USSR, the authors test the models of endogenous growth expressed by a modified production function with fixed effects. As independent variables the authors select stocks of physical and human capital at their replacement cost; proxy indicators of institutional and technological change; and R&D expenditures as a source of endogenous “Romerian” growth. The institutional quality is proxied by murder rate, an indicator of the most accurately registered type of violent criminal offense, as well as by “white- vs blue-collar wage differential” in industry, an indicator of trade-offs in the policies for production incentives and income distribution. The technological level of the economy is proxied by infant mortality. The authors model and estimate production functions based on both levels of the series and their rates of change. Statistically significant fixed effects are found, which indicate the existence of interrelationships in economic development of the former USSR republics as regions of the unified system. The authors reveal mixed evidence of Soviet economy transition to an endogenous growth model based on R&D and technological progress, which remained undeveloped. They document the increase of investments in intellectual capital in R&D and human capital formation in education. The hypothesis of the significant contribution to the slowdown of economic growth in the USSR on the part of deterioration of the institutional environment receives only partial support. The hypothesis of importance of technological level stagnation has received more support. In theoretical discourse of development economics, the authors discuss issues of human capital accumulation and investments in R&D for an economy at the middle stage of industrial development.
Keywords
JEL: E22, N14, N15, N34, N35, O41, O43, O52, O53
About the Authors
D. V. DidenkoRussian Federation
Dmitry V. Didenko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Cand. Sci. (Hist.), Leading Researcher, Professor, Institute for Social Sciences
82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571
N. V. Grineva
Russian Federation
Natalia V. Grineva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of Data Analysis and Machine Learning; Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technologies
49, Leningradskiy pr., Moscow, 125993
82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571
References
1. Acemoglu D., Robinson J. A. Pochemu odni strany bogatye, a drugiye bednye. Proiskhozhdenie vlasti, protsvetaniya i nishchety [Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty]. Transl. by D. Litvinov, S. Sanovich, P. Mironov. Moscow, AST, 2015. (In Russ.)
2. Anchishkin A. I.. Prognozirovanie tempov i faktorov ekonomicheskogo rosta [Forecasting the Pace and Factors of Economic Growth], comp. A. V. Suvorov. Moscow, MAX Press, 2003. (In Russ.)
3. Аfanasiev А. А., Ponomareva O. S. Narodnokhozyaystvennaya proizvodstvennaya funk3. tsiya Rossii v 1990-2017 gg. [The Macroeconomic Production Function of Russia in 1990-2017]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 2020, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 67-78. DOI:10.31857/S042473880006708-7. (In Russ.)
4. Аfanasiev А. А., Ponomareva O. S. Proizvodstvennaya funktsiya narodnogo khozyaystva Rossii v 1990-2012 gg. [The Aggregate Production Function of Russian Economy in 1990-2012]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody. [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 2014, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 21-33. (In Russ.)
5. Bokaryov Yu. P. 5. SSSR i stanovlenie postindustrial’nogo obshchestva na Zapade, 1970-1980-e gody [The USSR and the Coming of Post-Industrial Society in the West]. Moscow, Nauka, 2007. (In Russ.)
6. Gaddy C. G., Ickes B. W. Resursnaya zavisimost’ Rossii [Russia’s Dependence on Resources]. In: Alexeev M., Weber S. (eds.). Ekonomika Rossii. Oksfordskiy sbornik [The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy], transl. by A. Sholomitskaya, vol. 1. Moscow, Gaidar Institute Publishing House, 2015, pp. 535-583. (In Russ.)
7. Demidova O. A., Ivanov D. S. Modeli ekonomicheskogo rosta s neodnorodnymi prostranstvennymi effektami [Models of Economic Growth with Heterogenous Spatial Effects: The Case of Russian Regions]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE [HSE Economic Journal], 2016, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 52-75. (In Russ.)
8. Demidova О. A., Kamalova E. Prostransvenno-ekonometricheskoe modelorovanie ekonomicheskogo rosta rossiyskikh regionov: imeyut li znachenie instituty? [Spatial Econometric Modeling of Economic Growth in Russian Regions: Do Institutions Matter?]. Ekonomicheskaya politika [Economic Policy], 2021, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 34-59. DOI:10.18288/1994-5124-2021-2-34-59. (In Russ.)
9. Didenko D. V., Grineva N. V. Sovetskiy ekonomicheskiy rost v mezhstranovoy perspektive: rol’ finansirovaniya nauki [The Soviet Economic Growth in a Cross-Country Comparison: The Role of Financing Research and Development]. Istoricheskaya informatika [Historical Information Science], 2021, no. 1, pp. 48-65. DOI:10.7256/2585-7797.2021.1.34708. (In Russ.)
10. Zemtsov S. P., Smelov Yu. A. Faktory regional’nogo razvitiya v Rossii: geografiya, chelovecheskiy kapital ili politika regionov [Factors of Regional Development in Russia: Geography, Human Capital and Regional Policies]. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], 2018, no. 4(40), pp. 84-108. DOI:10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-4. (In Russ.)
11. Kirilyuk I. L. Modeli proizvodstvennoy funktsii dlya rossiiskoy ekonomiki [Models of Production Functions for the Russian Economy]. Komp’yuternye issledovaniya i modelirovanie [Computer Research and Modeling], 2013, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 293-312. DOI:10.20537/2076-7633-2013-5-2-293-312. (In Russ.)
12. Luneev V. V. Prestupnost’ 20 veka: mirovye, regional’nye i rossiiskie tendentsii [Criminality of the 20th Century: Global, Regional, and Russian Trends]. Moscow, Wolters Kluwer, 2005. (In Russ.)
13. Nureev R. M., Latov Yu. V. Mezhdu “real’nym sotsializmom” i “vostochnym despotizmom”: labirinty institutsional’nogo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Sovetskoy Rossii [Between “Real Socialism” and “Oriental Despotism”: The Labyrinths of Institutional Economic Development in Soviet Russia]. Mir Rossii [Universe of Russia], 2014, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 6-45. (In Russ.)
14. Khanin G. I. Dinamika ekonomicheskogo razvitiia SSSR [The Dynamics of Economic Development of the USSR]. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1991. (In Russ.)
15. Yaremenko Yu. V. Teoriya i metodologiya issledovaniya mnogourovnevoy ekonomiki [Theory and Methodology of the Study of the Multilevel Economy], Part 1. Moscow, Science Publishing House, 2000. (In Russ.)
16. Bai J. Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects. Econometrica, 2009, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 1229-1279. DOI:10.3982/ECTA6135.
17. Blasques F., Koopman S. J., Lucas A., Schaumburg J. Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time Series Models. Journal of Econometrics, 2016, vol. 195, no. 2, pp. 211-223. DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.09.001.
18. Catania L., Billé A. G. Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Disturbances. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 1178-1196. DOI:10.1002/jae.2565.
19. Desai P. The Soviet Economy: Problems and Prospects. Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1987.
20. Didenko D., Földvári P., Van Leeuwen B. The Spread of Human Capital in the Former Soviet Union Area in a Comparative Perspective: Exploring a New Dataset. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 2013, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 123-135. DOI:10.1016/j.euras.2013.03.002.
21. Durlauf S. N., Quah D. T. The New Empirics of Economic Growth. In: Taylor J. B., Woodford M. (eds.). Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1, part A, 1999, chapter 4, pp. 235-308. DOI:10.1016/S1574-0048(99)01007-1.
22. Easterly W., Fischer S. The Soviet Economic Decline: Historical and Republican Data. 22. The World Bank Economic Review, 1995, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 341-371. DOI:10.1093/wber/9.3.341.
23. Hamilton K., Ruta G., Bolt K., Markandya A., Pedroso-Galinato S., Silva P., Ordou23. badi M. S., Lange G.-M., Tajibaeva L. Where Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2005.
24. Karabchuk T., Kumo K., Selezneva E. Demography of Russia: From the Past to the Present. L., Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
25. Kukić L. Origins of Regional Divergence: Economic Growth in Socialist Yugoslavia. Economic History Review, 2020, vol. 73, no. 4, pp. 1097-1127. DOI:10.1111/ehr.12967.
26. Lange G.-M., Hamilton K., Ruta G., Chakraborti L., Desai D., Edens B., Ferreira S., Fraumeni B., Jarvis M., Kingsmill W., Li H. The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium. Environment and Development. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2011.
27. Lee L.-F., Yu J. A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model with Both Time and Individual Fixed Effects. Econometric Theory, 2010, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 564-597. DOI:10.1017/S0266466609100099.
28. Lucas R. E. Making a Miracle. Econometrica, 1993, vol. 61, no. 2, pp. 251-272. DOI:10.2307/2951551.
29. Lucas R. E. On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 3-42. DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7.
30. Mankiw N.G., Romer D., Weil D. N. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992, vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407-437. DOI:10.2307/2118477.
31. Männasoo K., Hein H, Ruubel R. The Contributions of Human Capital, R&D Spending and Convergence to Total Factor Productivity Growth. Regional Studies, 2018, vol. 52, no. 12, pp. 1598-1611. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2018.1445848.
32. Ofer G. Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985. 32. Journal of Economic Literature, 1987, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 1767-1833.
33. Popov V. Life Cycle of the Centrally Planned Economy: Why Soviet Growth Rates Peaked in the 1950s. In: Estrin S., Kolodko G.W., Uvalic M. (eds.). Studies in Economic Transition. Transition and Beyond. L., Palgrave Macmillan, 2007, pp. 35-57. DOI:10.1057/9780230590328_3.
34. Popov V. Mixed Fortunes: An Economic History of China, Russia, and the West. N. Y., NY, Oxford University Press, 2014. DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703631.001.0001.
35. Romer P. M. Endogenous Technological Change. 35. The Journal of Political Economy, 1990, vol. 98, no. 5(2), pp. S71-S102.
36. Shi W., Lee L.-F. Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects. Journal of Econometrics, 2017, vol. 197, no. 2, pp. 323-347. DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.12.001.
37. Steinberg D. The Soviet Economy 1970-1990: A Statistical Analysis. San Francisco, CA, Intern. Trade Press, 1990.
38. Van Leeuwen B., Földvári P. Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890-2000: 38. A Time-Series Analysis. Asian Economic Journal, 2008, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 225-240. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8381.2008.00276.x.
39. Weitzman M. L. Soviet Postwar Economic Growth and Capital-Labor Substitution. American Economic Review, 1970, vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 676-692.
40. Xu Y., Li A. The Relationship between Innovative Human Capital and Interprovincial Economic Growth Based on Panel Data Model and Spatial Econometrics. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 2020, vol. 365, no. 5. DOI:10.1016/j.cam.2019.112381.
41. Yu J., De Jong R., Lee L.-F. Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects When Both n and T Are Large. Journal of Econometrics, 2008, vol. 146, no. 1, pp. 118-134. DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.08.002.
Review
For citations:
Didenko D.V., Grineva N.V. Factors of Economic Growth in the Late USSR from a Spatial Perspective. Economic Policy. 2022;17(2):88-119. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2022-2-88-119