Changes in the Structure of Employment as an Incentive to Enroll in Higher Education: Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries
https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2022-4-44-75
Abstract
Enrollment of youth in higher education varies greatly between countries despite efforts to unify and align systems of higher education worldwide. The performance of university graduates in the labor market is one of the factors that affect demand for higher education. The author postulates that the dynamics observed in the proportions of the employed with high, medium and low skills reflect changes in demand for labor and influence the rate of enrollment in higher education. The aim of the research is to analyze the influence of the structure of employment by skill level on the rate of enrollment for higher education in developed and developing countries. Panel data regression analysis of 218 countries and dependent territories from 1989 to 2019 indicates that an increase in demand for low-skilled labor contributes to increased demand for higher education in developed countries by facilitating employment while studying in order to pay tuition. The influence of these factors on rates of enrollment in higher education differs between the samples from 1989 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2019 in developing countries. The estimates of the coefficients from the earlier samples are consistent with the stylized fact of growth in enrollment that outpaces growth of demand for labor. During the second period, expansion of higher education is driven by economic growth and increased national income as measured by per capita GDP. This analysis supports a forecast that the trend toward polarization of jobs and the growing popularity of remote work will retard the growth of university enrollment in developed countries. Overall growth of national prosperity in developing countries will contribute to recovery of the growth in demand for higher education.
About the Author
M. S. Telezhkina
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Marina S. Telezhkina – Senior Lecturer
25/12, Bolshaya Pecherskaya ul., Nizhny Novgorod, 603155
References
1. Gimpelson V. E., Kapelyushnikov R. I. Polyarizatsiya ili uluchshenie? Evolyutsiya struktury rabochikh mest v Rossii v 2000-e gody [Polarization or Upgrading? Evolution of Employment in Russia in the 2000s]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2015, no. 7, pp. 87-119. DOI:10.32609/ 0042-8736-2015-7-87-119. (In Russ.)
2. Maksimov A. G., Telezhkina M. S. Ekonometricheskiy analiz fenomena massovizatsii vysshego obrazovaniya [Econometric Analysis of the Phenomenon of Higher Education Expansion]. Prikladnaya ekonometrika [Applied Econometrics], 2019, vol. 55, pp. 91-112. DOI:10.24411/1993-7601-2019-10012. (In Russ.)
3. Acemoglu D., Autor D. Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings. In: Card D., Ashenfelter O. (eds.). Handbook of Labor Economics. Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2011, vol. 4B, pp. 1043-1171. DOI:10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02410-5.
4. Arellano M., Bond S. Some Tests of Specifi ation for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economics Studies, 1991, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 277-297. DOI:10.2307/2297968.
5. Baltagi B., Kao C., Liu L. Estimation and Identification of Change Points in Panel Models with Nonstationary or Stationary Regressors and Error Term. The Maxwell School’s Center for Policy Research, Working Paper Series, no. 178, 2015.
6. Barakat B., Shields R. Just Another Level? Comparing Quantitative Patterns of Global School and Higher Education Expansion. Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, no. 5, 2016.
7. Becker G. A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The Economic Journal, 1965, vol. 75, no. 299, pp. 493-517. DOI:10.2307/2228949.
8. Bellemare M. F., Masaki T., Pepinsky T. B. Lagged Explanatory Variables and the Estimation of Causal Effects. The Journal of Politics, 2017, vol. 79, no. 3. DOI:10.1086/690946.
9. Blundell R., Bond S. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics, 1998, vol. 87, no. 1, pp. 115-143. DOI:10.1016/S03044076(98)00009-8.
10. Blundell R., Green D., Jin W. The UK Education Expansion and Technological Change, 2018. https://conference.iza.org/conference_files/MacroEcon_2018/jin_w9519.pdf.
11. Delavande A., Zafar B. University Choice: The Role of Expected Earnings, Non-Pecuniary Outcomes, and Financial Constraints. Journal of Political Economy, 2019, vol. 127, no. 5, pp. 2343-2393. DOI: 10.1086/701808.
12. Dingel J., Neiman B. How Many Jobs Can Be Done at Home? Journal of Public Economics, 2020, vol. 189(C). DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104235.
13. Froumin I., Platonova D. Higher Education Expansion in Brazil, Russia, India, and China. In: Teixeira P. N., Shin J. C. (eds.). Encyclopedia of International Higher Education Systems and Institutions. Dordrecht, Springer, 2017, pp. 1-7. DOI:10.1007/978-94-017-95531_51-1.
14. Goldin C., Katz L. F. The Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, vol. 113, no. 3, pp. 693-732. DOI:10.1162/003355398555720.
15. Gleason N. (ed.). Higher Education in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018. DOI:10.1007/978-981-13-0194-0.
16. Knight J., Deng Q., Li S. China’s Expansion of Higher Education: The Labour Market Consequences of a Supply Shock. China Economic Review, 2017, vol. 43(C), pp. 127-141. DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2017.01.008.
17. Maddala G. S., Wu S. A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999, vol. 61, no. S1, pp. 631-652. DOI:10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631.
18. Maloney W., Molina C. Is Automation Labor-Displacing in the Developing Countries, Too? Robots, Polarization and Jobs. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2019.
19. Pesaran M. H., Smith R. Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 1995, vol. 68, no. 1, pp. 79-113. DOI:10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F.
20. Valetta R. Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both? IZA Discussion Paper, no. 10194, 2016.
21. Walker I., Zhu Y. The College Wage Premium, Overeducation, and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK. IZA Discussion Paper, no. 1627, 2005
Review
For citations:
Telezhkina M.S. Changes in the Structure of Employment as an Incentive to Enroll in Higher Education: Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries. Economic Policy. 2022;17(4):44-75. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2022-4-44-75
Views:
89
Email this article 