Impact of the Grain Damper on the Russian Wheat Market
https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2025-6-68-95
Abstract
The paper provides a quantitative assessment of grain damper effects on the Russian wheat market from 2021 to 2024. The author’s analysis of the theoretical foundations for modeling the market of an exporting country yielded the following: (1) a proposed approach to modeling the demand for intermediate goods in the domestic market of an exporting country; (2) a description of the way in which export prices, duties, and domestic prices are related when there is a wholesale link in the chain of the exported goods. A simulation model of the Russian wheat market with constant elasticity coefficients was constructed. The positive effect of damping from 2021 to 2024 was as follows: (1) the coefficient of price variation decreased by 2.5–5.0% from 2021 to 2023; (2) domestic demand increased by 10.4 million tons; (3) agricultural inventories decreased by 9-19%; (4) budget revenues increased by 687 billion rubles. Negative effects included: (1) a decrease in exports by 12.2 million tons; (2) a decrease in producer revenues by 200 billion rubles and of the marginal income of exporters by 369.7 billion rubles; (3) a decrease in gross yields by 8.1 million tons. A long-term reduction in the regulatory impact of export duties on the market was observed because carryover inventories diminished. The study concludes that it is advisable to remove export duties on wheat by gradually increasing the base prices on which they are calculated.
About the Author
A. I. Boldiasov
PromKhimResurs-D LLC
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexey I. Boldiasov, Market Analyst
82, Vatutina ul., Nizhny Novgorod Region, Dzerzhinsk, 606024
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Review
For citations:
Boldiasov A.I. Impact of the Grain Damper on the Russian Wheat Market. Economic Policy. 2025;20(6):68-95. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2025-6-68-95
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