E-Commerce and Economic Activity in Russia’s Regions

T. Yu. Ivakhnenko; A. V. Polbin; S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev

doi:10.18288/1994-5124-2026-3-78-111

E-Commerce and Economic Activity in Russia’s Regions

T. Yu. Ivakhnenko, A. V. Polbin, S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev

https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2026-3-78-111

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Abstract

Empirical studies examining the impact of various aspects of digitalization on the socio-economic development of regional economies are relatively scarce in the Russian academic literature. Despite the growing role of digital technologies in regional economic development, their effects on key indicators of regional economic activity remain insufficiently explored. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of one of the fastest-growing indicators of digitalization — e-commerce intensity — on the unemployment rate as well as on SME performance across Russia’s regions. Two indicators were employed to capture e-commerce intensity: the share of online sales in total retail turnover and the volume of online sales per capita in a region. By using panel data for Russian regions from 2014 to 2023 and applying econometric modeling techniques, statistically significant relationships were identified between the development of e-commerce and selected indicators of regional economic activity. First, there is a negative correlation between the share of online sales in total retail trade and the unemployment rate, which may indicate the potential of e-commerce to create jobs and expand employment. Second, a positive correlation emerged between per capita online sales and SME performance per capita and is indicative of an association between digital sales channels and SME activity. These findings should facilitate the formulation of regional economic policy by emphasizing the importance of developing digital infrastructure and supporting e-commerce as a significant factor in economic activity.

Keywords

digitalization, unemployment, small and medium-sized enterprises

JEL: E24, L26, R11

About the Authors

T. Yu. Ivakhnenko

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Russian Federation

Tatiana Yu. Ivakhnenko, Research Fellow, Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993

A. V. Polbin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Bank of Russia
Russian Federation

Andrey V. Polbin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes; Head of the Expert Group

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993

12, Neglinnaya ul., Moscow, 107016

S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Russian Federation

Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Lead Research Fellow

3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993

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Review

For citations:

Ivakhnenko T.Yu., Polbin A.V., Sinelnikov-Murylev S.G. E-Commerce and Economic Activity in Russia’s Regions. Economic Policy. 2026;21(3):78-111. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2026-3-78-111

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