Tax Policy
The article examines the impact of intraregional tax decentralization in Russia on the growth of the tax bases in regard to simplified taxation system, personal income tax, corporate property tax and corporate income tax. The main hypothesis is that tax decentralization to local budgets has a positive effect on the growth of the revenue base of the corresponding tax, and the more local authorities can influence taxpayers, the stronger this effect. The paper also tests the hypothesis that tax decentralization to the local level can have different effects in poor versus rich regions. Hypotheses are tested using the pooled panel data model, the between-estimator model, the fixed effects model (or the withinestimator model), and the hybrid model. Marginal effects are estimated in order to take into account the level of regional wealth. Based on the results of the calculations, it is concluded that there is a positive effect from decentralizing the simplified taxation system, personal income tax, corporate income tax and corporate property tax, but only in certain groups of regions. In particular, with respect to simplified taxation system and corporate property tax, this turned out to be true for the less well-off regions, and with respect to personal income tax—for the poorest. At the same time, the dynamics of decentralization rates (decentralization of additional percentage points of the rate) do not have a significant positive effect on the tax base. The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
REGIONAL ECONOMY
As a rule, regions of the same country do not develop independently, but influence each other. When modeling the economic growth of regions, it is necessary to take into account such mutual influence, since, for example, with the growth of one of the regions, neighboring regions can grow as well (i.e. there is cooperation) or, conversely, slow down their growth (due to competition), or not react in any way. Omission of the corresponding variables (spatial factors) can lead to a bias in the estimates of the model parameters. As a rule, spatial econometric models are used to take into account the relevant spatial factors. These models differ from classical regression models by the presence of spatial lags of the dependent and independent variables. The coefficients for these spatial lags are usually assumed to be constant. Thus, the degree of influence of neighboring regions on the chosen one does not depend on the characteristics of this region, which seems to the authors to be an excessively strong assumption in models for heterogeneous countries, such as Russia. The authors weakened this assumption by replacing constant coefficients of spatial lags with linear functions characterizing the quality of institutions and the degree of business activity in the region under consideration. The level of entrepreneurial activity in the region, the index of the region’s provision with banking services, and the investment potential of the region were chosen as such variables. The number of estimated parameters increased insignificantly, but with the help of the modified model the authors were able to test and empirically confirm the hypothesis that the higher the quality of the institutional environment and the degree of business activity of a given region, the more sensitive it is to the influences of neighboring regions.
LABOR MARKET
The article is devoted to problems of the modern labor market in Russia associated with the widespread use of shadow employment and the loyal attitude of the population to various manifestations of the shadow economy. The article examines the dynamics of the involvement of employed citizens in non-criminal shadow processes, their attitude to various manifestations of the shadow economy, the reasons for non-criminal shadow employment, and the attitude of the population to the state’s actions to reduce shadow employment, including the introduction of a new tax regime, “Tax on professional income” for individuals. The paper uses the results of the all-Russian sociological survey of the employed population, conducted in 2020. There is a decrease in the number of citizens involved in the shadow processes in the labor market, which may be due to both the result of the activities of state regulatory bodies to stimulate the exit from the shadow among self-employed citizens, and the possible impact on workers’ shadow activities of the pandemic, which severely restricts the forms of providing shadow services and jobs as well as the ability of consumers to obtain them. It is revealed that, as measures to reduce informal employment, the Russians prefer stimulating actions rather than measures with various restrictions or penalties. Based on the empirical results of monitoring the shadow labor market, directions of activities to stimulate the participation of citizens in official employment are proposed.
Using the data from RLMS-HSE and O*NET for 2003–2018, we examine the development of ICT skills and changes in digital requirements within occupations in the Russian labor market. The degree and pace of digitalization vary widely across occupations. Occupational segregation contributes to the fact that digitalization has different effects on the employment and earnings of men and women. Although the diffusion of digital technologies is an ongoing trend, the Russian workforce digitalized rapidly over the 15 years. We find growing demand for digital skills from employers, backed with a significant increase in the proportion of the working population using computers and the Internet. The average level of digital skills remains higher among women, although the gap halved between 2003 and 2018. The rapid digitalization of existing occupations was by far the main driver of digital transformation while emerging and disappearing occupations were playing a secondary role. Digital adoption has an independent and positive impact on earnings. Computer use is associated with increased pay; average wages, ceteris paribus, are higher in occupations with higher levels of digitalization. The correlation between computer use and wages weakens over time with the spread of basic digital skills. On the contrary, the relationship between wages and the digital scores of occupations had strengthened by 2018. Adding digital variables to the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition widens the conditional gender pay gap, but digitalization has not become a new source of discrimination against women. The results are robust to changes in model assumptions and equation specifications.
Economic History
This article analyses the career path of Mikhail Khristoforovich Reutern (Michael Graf von Reutern), Russia’s Finance Minister from 1862 to 1878. The article proves that trust was an important success factor in Reutern’s economic and financial policy, as can be seen at various phases of his activities. The future minister was part of the group of officials close to Grand Duke Konstantin Nikolayevich, who played a significant role in the implementation of the Emancipation Reform of 1861. Being a member of the Financial Commission, Reutern took an active part in working out the conditions for peasants’ plots buyout, which enabled him, with the support of Konstantin Nikolayevich, to become Finance Minister. Reutern could establish order in the budget sphere and to carry out the financial reform, largely due to Emperor Alexander II’s support. Particular attention is paid to the economic aspect of the Emperor’s foreign policy. While attempting to cut budget spending, Reutern had to come into conflict with War Minister Dmitry Alekseуevich Milyutin, who needed funds for a war reform—both Ministers then had to appeal to Alexander II. The article highlights a period in the mid-1870s, when the situation in the Balkans seriously worsened and Alexander II was inclining toward declaring war on Turkey. Having failed to convince the Emperor in the war’s inappropriateness, Reutern resigned; however, Alexander II asked him to remain, and thus he only left the position of Minister after the end of the war. Major factors of success in Reutern’s activity were not only his correct strategy for overcoming the crisis in the Russian economy, but also the “vertical” of trust created by him, which implied the Emperor’s trust in Reutern, Reutern’s trust in the Emperor, and also mutual trust between Reutern and his subordinates. The appendix features the first publication of Reutern’s farewell speech of July 14, 1878 to the Ministry officials on the occasion of his retirement as well as of a brief essay on his departure from Saint Petersburg.
Do personal connections matter for the performance of commercial banks in the period of economic development and financial stress? In the 1890s, the Russian Empire, when undergoing rapid stateled industrialization, grew through foreign capital inflows into the national debt and through the state’s procurement of industrial output. In 1899, the inflow of foreign capital fell sharply, initiating a financial crisis and a recession in heavy industry. In response to the crisis, authorities introduced a law which removed bankers from the boards of companies. Using newly collected historical data, this paper finds that the banks which experienced greater distress during the crisis had more personal connections to heavy industrial companies, those that had been most stimulated by state policies to expand production in the 1890s. These banks also had more personal ties to top government officials, those who were closest to the epicenter of policymaking. In contrast, during the industrial development of the 1890s, banks’ personal connections to heavy industrial companies and top officials were positively related to bank performance. These findings suggest that well-connected bankers might fail to provide the valuable expertise and foresight that is expected from them in a time of crisis when decisive action is required to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment.
ISSN 2411-2658 (Online)